Cercle Condorcet-Voltaire du Pays de Gex et de Genève

La revanche de la Chine est-elle en train d’aboutir ?

Paolo Urio,

Professeur émérite de l’Université de Genève, spécialiste et auteur de nombreux ouvrages sur la Chine actuelle.

Au début du XIXe siècle, l’Empire du Milieu fait figure de grande puissance : il possède un tiers (33%) de la richesse mondiale, alors que les USA n’en ont que 1,8% et l’Europe (les actuels pays de l’Union Européenne, en pleine révolution industrielle) 23,3%. Un siècle plus tard, la part de la Chine n’est plus que de 8,8%, et c’est l’Europe qui possède le tiers de la richesse mondiale (35,8%) alors que celle de la nouvelle puissance, les USA, est passée à 19%.

 Mais le pire pour la Chine fut d’avoir été agressée, vaincue et réduite à l’état de semi-colonie, par les puissances occidentales vers le milieu du XIXe siècle : défaite ressentie par ses dirigeants comme la plus grande humiliation de son histoire pendant au moins un siècle. L’Empire, incapable de faire face et miné par des contradictions internes, s’écroule en 1912. Sous la Première République, qui lui succède, les ingérences occidentales (et celles de l’Union Soviétique) se poursuivent dans un climat de guerre civile, entre nationalistes et communistes (le  parti communiste chinois voit le jour en 1921), peu propice à la reconquête du statut de grande puissance. Guerre civile qui marque un arrêt avec l’agression du Japon dans les années 30 jusqu’à sa défaite en 1945, pour reprendre et se terminer par la victoire des communistes et la proclamation de la République Populaire de Chine en 1949. Repart alors, avec un nouvel élan, la marche vers la reconquête du statut de grande puissance que l’Empire et la Première République avaient à peine amorcée.

Qu’en est-il aujourd’hui ?

Paolo Urio proposera une clef de lecture des événements qui ont conduit (et continuent de conduire) la Chine vers la reconquête du statut de grande puissance mondiale afin de comprendre la stratégie mise en œuvre dans ce but, et ce sans relâche, par tous les gouvernants chinois qui se sont succédés à la tête de ce grand pays depuis le XIXe siècle.

Catégories : Programme 2016

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